West Ham United have been backed to end one of their longest-running away droughts when they face Millwall at The Den on Saturday.
Nuno Espírito Santo’s side arrive at the derby having won four consecutive Championship matches and sitting top of the table after seven games.
That form has made the Hammers favourites heading into their first competitive meeting with Millwall since 2012.
A prediction model now gives West Ham a 52 per cent chance of taking all three points.
Victory would also carry historical significance.
West Ham have not won a league match away to Millwall since December 1988.
Supercomputer favours West Ham against Millwall
The prediction, reported by West Ham Zone, gives West Ham the strongest chance of winning Saturday’s derby.
Nuno’s side have been handed a 52 per cent probability of victory.
Millwall are given a 24 per cent chance, while the draw sits at 23 per cent.
Those numbers reflect the contrasting form of the two sides.
West Ham have won their last four Championship fixtures against Wolves, Derby County, Bolton Wanderers and Wrexham.
They scored 16 goals across those four victories, including six during the demolition of Wrexham at London Stadium.
Millwall have found things much more difficult.
Alex Neil’s side have won only one of their previous five Championship matches and enter the derby after surrendering a two-goal lead in Tuesday’s 2-2 draw at Middlesbrough.
A 52 per cent probability still leaves considerable room for West Ham to drop points.
The prediction should therefore be viewed as an indication of current form rather than any guarantee of what happens at The Den.
West Ham looking to end 38-year Millwall drought
West Ham’s away record in this fixture provides the clearest reason for caution.
The Hammers have not recorded a league victory at Millwall since a 1-0 win in December 1988.
More than three decades have passed since then, although meetings between the clubs have been relatively rare.
The most recent competitive encounter came at Upton Park in February 2012.
West Ham won that Championship fixture 2-1 despite Kevin Nolan being sent off inside the opening ten minutes.
Saturday now gives Nuno’s side an opportunity to finally change their record at The Den.
Millwall boss Alex Neil has already questioned how West Ham will handle the atmosphere in South Bermondsey.
That will be one of the factors Nuno must manage if his side are to justify their status as favourites.
Nuno can extend impressive West Ham run
There is another landmark available to West Ham.
Victory would make it five consecutive league wins for the first time since February 2006.
Read West Ham has examined how Nuno’s side can end that 20-year wait against Millwall.
The Hammers also enter the weekend as the Championship’s highest scorers, having found the net 20 times across their opening seven fixtures.
That attacking form gives West Ham plenty of reason for confidence.
Saturday’s derby, however, brings circumstances that cannot be measured entirely through recent results.
The atmosphere, rivalry and West Ham’s poor historical record at The Den ensure this will be very different from the victory over Wrexham.
The prediction model favours Nuno’s team.
Now West Ham must prove those numbers right on the pitch.
