In front of 3,000 fans outside of Slovenia’s capital city of Ljubljana, West Ham United lost 2-1 to NK Domžale in the first leg of their Europa League third round qualifier. This Thursday, the Hammers will play the second leg of the third round in front of more than 54,000 fans in the first match at the new Olympic Stadium. West Ham must have a much different showing than last week in order to escape NK Domžale and avoid an early Europa League exit.
Slaven Bilic showed his intentions for a long tournament run, starting a strong squad. But the strength of the team did not correlate over to a victory, despite the Hammers controlling nearly 60% of the possession. Outshot 17 to 10 by NK Domžale, West Ham were unable to muster the attacking threat of last season, scoring solely on a Mark Noble penalty shot.
For West Ham to advance, the Hammers not only need to win the match but need to ensure the away goal rule of aggregate remains in their favour. Should NK Domžale lose 3-2, the aggregate score from leg one would total 4-4. NK Domžale would advance because the Slovenian side would have scored two away goals to West Ham’s one.
It will be imperative that the Hammers remain strong at the back. A 1-0 victory for West Ham would level the aggregate score at 2, but West Ham would advance based on their one away goal. A second leg scoreline of 2-1, in West Ham’s favour, would total a 3-3 aggregate score. With one away goal for both teams, extra time, and perhaps penalties, would be required to find the winner.
Therefore, changes for Thursday’s second leg begin at the back to ensure NK Domžale do not capitalise on the away goal rule, even in defeat. While Michail Antonio is likely to start again at right back, he was instrumental in both of NK Domžale’s goals.
Bilic values attacking full backs like Aaron Cresswell. Antonio scored eight goals last year, even while playing at right back for more than half of his games. But a full back’s attacking ability is only as good as his ability to track back and defend, otherwise he should just play as a winger. Antonio made it clear in the first leg that the defending portion of the job is not his strong suit.
Sam Byram should be given the right back spot for the second leg Thursday. The 22-year-old has attacking experience, occasionally playing as a right midfielder during his time with Leeds United. But most importantly, Byram, as a natural defender, understands when to push forward and when to hold back. Antonio will have to learn that if Bilic is serious about keeping him at right back.
West Ham have worries at left back to sort out as well, with Cresswell out for up to four months. While the Hammers are scrambling to find a replacement in the transfer market, it could be Angelo Ogbonna who fills in at left back. Last match, Byram performed admirably whilst playing on his weaker side. But with Ogbonna ready back from Euro 2016, the Italian defender could be a more reliable option, as he has experience at left back despite being a central defender by trade.
Another option would be 20-year-old Lewis Page. The left back was Cresswell’s understudy during the preseason, but Bilic may see him as too inexperienced to start in such a crucial game.
West Ham had sufficient possession in the first leg, but only three shots on target were not enough to leave Slovenia with at least a draw.
If Gokhan Tore remains sidelined for the second leg, Bilic should not start Enner Valencia on the wing again. Rather, he should move Antonio to the left wing, or 19-year-old Martin Samuelsen. Antonio will likely play at right back, leaving Samuelsen, the Norwegian international, the go-to winger.
MORE: West Ham’s predicted team for their crunch clash with NK Domzale tomorrow.
Samuelsen showed off his creativity on West Ham’s U.S. tour, and while he did not score or earn an assist, his presence on the ball troubled the MLS and NASL defenders much more than Valencia did last week. With Andy Carroll likely to start up top once more, Samuelsen will be better equipped to offer service into the box than Valencia showed last match.
Should the Hammers find themselves unable to score the crucial goal to send them through to the next round, 20-year-old Ashley Fletcher should be substituted into the attacking mix. The first leg screamed for another striker in the box, but Fletcher, West Ham’s new signing from Manchester United, was left on the bench.
Fletcher had two goals in three games with West Ham in Austria and adds another poacher who can feed off of quality service from Sofiane Feghouli from the right wing, and Samuelsen from the left.
Prediction: West Ham 2-0 NK Domžale (Aggregate: West Ham 3-2 NK Domžale).
After a further week of training, and a week to digest and analyse their first leg loss, West Ham will cruise to an opening victory at the Olympic Stadium. The Hammers will continue their European Tour, for the time being, advancing through the third round qualifiers of the Europa League to the play-off stage.
